Pengujian Trilemma Conditions pada Perekonomian Indonesia

  • Mela Yunita Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, Sekolah Pasca Sarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8170-0513
  • Noer Azam Achsani Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, Sekolah Pasca Sarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor
  • Lukytawati Anggraeni Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, Sekolah Pasca Sarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor
Keywords: Hipotesis Trilemma, Perbedaan Rezim Nilai Tukar, Inflation Targeting

Abstract

Testing the Trilemma Conditions of Indonesian EconomyThe key challenge for monetary policy in emerging market countries is simultaneously maintain monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and join with financial integration. This reseach explain the interaction of monetary policy in Indonesia over time to answer those three challenge with a Trilemma conditions. This research evaluate the Bank Indonesia’s decision to change the exchange rate regime and apllied ”inflation targeting”. The methods include to build the Trilemma’ index and testing the Trilemma with constant regression. The results indicate that Bank Indonesia has tradeoff in determining the combination of monetary policy objectives. Tradeoff for Bank Indonesia more heavy under free floating due to fear of floating’s problem and tradeoff lighter when inflation targeting applied.Keywords: Trilemma Hyphotesis; Different Exchange Rate Rezim; Inflation Targeting AbstrakTantangan utama kebijakan moneter di negara berkembang adalah secara bersamaan dapat mempertahankan independensi moneter, menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, dan terlibat dalam integrasi keuangan global. Penelitian ini menjelaskan bagaimana kombinasi kebijakan moneter di Indonesia dari waktu ke waktu dapat menjawab ketiga tantangan tersebut dengan memenuhi kondisi Trilemma. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi keputusan Bank Indonesia mengubah rezim nilai tukar dan keputusan menerapkan target inflasi. Metode yang digunakan yaitu membangun indeks Trilemma dan mengujinya menggunakan constant regression. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa Bank Indonesia menghadapi tradeoff dalam menentukan kombinasi tujuan kebijakannya. Tradeoff lebih berat ketika periode rezim free floating karena adanya masalah fear of floating, sedangkan tradeoff lebih ringan ketika penerapan inflation targeting.

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Published
2017-01-01
How to Cite
Yunita, M., Achsani, N., & Anggraeni, L. (2017). Pengujian Trilemma Conditions pada Perekonomian Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 17(2), 151-168. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v17i2.718
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