Fenomena Fear of Floating Nilai Tukar di Indonesia Periode 1998-2007: Identifkasi, Alasan Ekonomi, dan Implikasinya terhadap Kebijakan Moneter

Phenomenon of Fear of Floating of Exchange Rate in Indonesia During the Period of 1998-2007: Identification, Eco

  • Budiasih Budiasih
Keywords: fear of floating, monetary policy, exchange rate

Abstract


The stable fluctuation of Rp against the US$ during the free floating exchange rate regime in 2002-2007 raises the existence of fear of floating exchange rate phenomenon in Indonesia. The GARCH method is use to verify this phenomenon. Moreover, Time Varying Parameter and Error Correction Mechanism method shows the economic reason behind the Monetary Authoritys response in stabilizing rupiah. Depreciation and increasing volatility of Rupiah raises ination and bank Non-Performing Loans, while appreciation and increasing volatility of Rupiah, reduce the net export. Furthermore, Vector Autoregressive confirms the Monetary Authority respond to exchange rate shock through the interest rate policy for four months and through the foreign reserves policy for two months.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Aruman, S. (2003). The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Australia: A Factor Model

Approach with GARCH Specifications. Discussion Paper No. 135. Brisbane, Australia: Queensland University of Technology.

Baillie, R.T. & Osterberg, W.P. (1997). Why do central banks intervene?. Journal of International

Money and Finance, 16 (6), December, 909-919.

Calvo, G.A. & Reinhart, C.M. (2002). Fear Of Floating. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107 (2),

May: 379-408.

Castro, J.F. (2004). On the Reasons Behind Fear of Floating: Pass-through Effects vs. Contractionary Depreciations. Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings, Econometric Society No. 268. Universidad del Pacifico. Centro de Investigacion de la.

Correa, A. & Minella, A. (2005). Nonlinear Mechanisms of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Phillips Curve Model with Threshold for Brazil. Working Paper Series 122. Central Bank of Brazil/Banco Central do Brasil. www.bcb.gov.br/ pec/wps/ingl/wps122.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Daniel, S. (2006). Estimation of Exchange Market Pressure in the EU4 Countries: A Model-

Dependent Approach. MPRA Paper No. 7256. Poland: Silesian University - School of Business

Administration. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen. de/7256. (15 Februari 2011)

Daniel, S. (2006). Some Evidence of Exchange Market Pressure in The EU4 Countries. Silesian

University - School of Business Administration.

Domac, I. & Peria, M.S.M. (2000). Banking Crises and Exchange Rate Regimes: Is There a Link?. Policy

Research Working Paper 2489. Washington, DC: World Bank. www-wds.worldbank.org/ external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2001/01/10/000094946_00122105372596/ Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Duttagupta, R., Fernandez, G., & Karacadag, C. (2004). From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Toward Exchange Rate Flexibility. IMF Working Paper, WP/04/126, July. International Monetary Fund. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04126.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Enders, W. (2003). Applied Econometric Time Series, 2nd edition. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

Gallego, F. & Jones, G. (2005). Exchange Rate Interventions and Insurance: Is Fear of Floating A Cause for Concern?. Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, 326. http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc326.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Ganapolsky, E.J.J. (2003). Optimal Fear of Floating: The Role of Currency Mismatches and Fiscal

Constraints. Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings, 85. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. http://repec.org/esLATM04/up.16696. 1081289697.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Gregorio, J. & Tokman R., A. (2004). Flexible Exchange Rate Regime and Forex Interventions:

The Chilean Case. Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile, 11. Central Bank of Chile. http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/ documentos-politica-economica/pdf/dpe11.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Gujarati, D. N. (1995). Basic Econometrics. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Hausmann, R., Panizza, U., & Stein, E. (2001). Original Sin, Passthrough, and Fear of Floating.

Cambridge, MA: Harvard University. http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rhausma/paper/OSpassthrufearoffloating.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Holland, M. (2006) Exchange Rate Volatility and the Fear of Floating in Brazil. Economia, Selecta,

Brasilia (DF) 7 (2), May-Aug, 279292. Central Bank of Brazil. http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/vol7/vol7n2p279_292.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Kim, H., Kim, S. & Wang, Y. (2004). Fear of Floating in East Asia. Discussion Papers series, Department

of Economics, Tufts University No. 0507. Medford, Massachusetts: Tufts University.http://

ase.tufts.edu/econ/papers/200507.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Laporan Tahunan Bank Indonesia Tahun 2005. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia.

Levy-Yeyati, E. & Sturzenegger, F. (2001). Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performance. IMF Sta_ Papers, 47 (Special Issue). International Monetary Fund. www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/staffp/2000/00-00/ls.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Makhubela, O. (2004). Does South Africa Suffer from the Fear of Float Syndrome?: An Analysis of the Efficacy and Challenges of a Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime with Financial Integration. Department of Economics Working Paper,138. London: University of London. Department of Economics. School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS). www.soas.ac.uk/economics/research/workingpapers/file28841.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Markiewicz, A. (2005). Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Central and Eastern European Countries: An Empirical Analysis. Center for Economic Studies Discussion Paper Series (DPS) No. 05.01. Belgium: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.

Mwase, N. (2006). An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in

Tanzania. IMF Working Paper No. WP/06/150. International Monetary Fund. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/wp06150.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Samiun, R. (1998). Evaluasi Program Intervensi dalam Rangka Stabilisasi Nilai Tukar. Buletin Ekonomi

Moneter dan Perbankan, 1 (3), 27-44.

Siamat, D. (2005). Manajemen Lembaga Keuangan: Kebijakan Moneter dan Perbankan, ed. 5. Jakarta: Lembaga Penerbit FEUI.

Smets, F. (1997). Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks In France, Germany and Italy: The Role

of The Exchange Rate. BIS Working Papers, 42. Basle, Switzerland: Monetary and Economic

Department. Bank For International Settlements. http://www.bis.org/publ/work42.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Suseno & Abdullah, P. (2003). Sistem dan Kebijakan Perbankan di Indonesia. Jakarta : Pusat Pendidikan

dan Studi Kebanksentralan (PPSK) Bank Indonesia.

Tanner, E. (2001). Exchange Market Pressure And Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in The 1990s. IMF Sta_s Paper, 47 (3). International Monetary Fund. http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/staffp/2001/01/pdf/tanner.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Tiwari, R. (2003) Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in Southeast Asia: An Empirical Survey of defacto Policies. Seminar Paper. German: University of Hamburg. http://www.global-innovation. net/team/tiwari/PDF/exchange-rate.pdf. (15 Februari 2011)

Published
2011-07-01
Views
  • Abstract 540


  • PDF 587
Abstract Metrics
Abstract view : 540 times

PDF - 587 times
How to Cite
Budiasih, B. (2011). Fenomena Fear of Floating Nilai Tukar di Indonesia Periode 1998-2007: Identifkasi, Alasan Ekonomi, dan Implikasinya terhadap Kebijakan Moneter. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 12(1), 15-30. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v12i1.285
Section
Articles