Pengujian Trilemma Conditions: Ukuran Baru bagi Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia

Mela Yunita, Noer Azam Achsani, Lukytawati Anggraeni

Abstract


Testing the Trilemma Conditions: New Measurement of Monetary Policy for Indonesia

 

Abstract

The key challenge for emerging market countries is how to simultaneously maintain monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial integration with constraints Trilemma hypothesis. We explain the interaction of monetary policy over time and Evaluate the Bank Indonesia's decision to change the exchange rate regime and apllied “inflation targeting”. The methods include build the Trilemma’ index and constant regression The results indicate that over time Bank Indonesia has tradeoff in determining the combination of monetary policy objectives. Than tradeoff for Bank Indonesia more heavy under free floating due to fear of floating’s problem and tradeoff lighter when inflation targeting apllied.

Keyword: Trilemma hyphotesis, different exchange rate rezim, Inflation targeting

 

Abstrak

Tantangan utama bagi negara berkembang adalah bagaimana secara bersamaan mempertahankan independensi moneter, stabilitas nilai tukar, dan integrasi keuangan dengan kendala Trilemma hypothesis. Penelitian ini menjelaskan bagaimana interaksi kebijakan moneter di Indonesia dari waktu ke waktu serta mengevaluasi keputusan Bank Indonesia untuk mengubah rezim nilai tukar dan penerapan “Inflation Targeting”. Metode yang digunakan yaitu membangun indeks Trilemma dan constant regression. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa dari waktu ke waktu Bank Indonesia menghadapi tradeoff dalam menentukan kombinasi tujuan kebijakannya. Tradeoff lebih berat ketika periode rezim free floating karena adanya masalah fear of floating, sedangkan tradeoff lebih ringan ketika penerapan inflation targeting.


Keywords


Trilemma hyphotesis; perbedaan rezim nilai tukar; Inflation targeting



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v17i2.718

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