Analisis Keseimbangan Eksternal Indonesia: Pendekatan Intertemporal Model of Current Account

Nurmalindah Nurmalindah, Sugiharso Safuan

Abstract


Current account balance has an important role of measuring the direction and the amount of international loan. This study analyzes Indonesian external balance due to its solvency condition of external debt and sustainability of current account balance during 1970{2007 by intertemporal-model approach of current account. The results of cointegration test and bivariate autoregressive (VAR) indicate that solvency condition holds, but not for the sustainability condition of current account balance. It means that Indonesia has capability to payback its external debt.

Abstrak


Dalam hubungannya dengan utang luar negeri, transaksi berjalan mempunyai peranan penting karena mengukur arah dan besarnya pinjaman internasional. Tulisan ini menganalisis mengenai keseimbangan eksternal Indonesia dengan melihat pada solvency condition atas utang luar negeri dan sustainabilitas neraca transaksi berjalan dengan pendekatan intertemporal model of current account. Data yang digunakan adalah time series tahunan periode 1970--2007. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa solvency condition Indonesia terpenuhi, artinya Indonesia berada dalam kemampuan membayar kembali utangnya, namun kondisi sustainabilitas neraca transaksi berjalan tidak tercapai.


Keywords


External Debt; Solvency Condition; Current Account Balance; Sustainability; Intertemporal-Model of Current Account; Utang luar negeri; solvency condition; neraca transaksi berjalan; sustainabilitas

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v13i2.192

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